As as the southern hemisphere cyclone season winds down, many cruisers are looking for the perfect time to set sail across the often boisterous Tasman Sea. But what if the weather guru's are wrong?
Thank you to those who added comments. I have personally, never used a weather router for planning my own departures. So I can't comment on who might be a best or better person to contact. I have known Bob McDavitt as a friend for many years and know the high regard he is held in for his weather knowledge, his generosity in sharing that knowledge and his ability to understand what sailing on a smaller boat feels like. That aside, I forgot to include one other source of information I use for choosing potentially better weather windows - the Atlas of Pilot charts for the sea-area where I will be sailing. Issued by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), they are only updated about every ten years. And yes, due to global changes, maybe this should be done more often. But over all, they do help show the general pattern of winds, seas and storms we might encounter.
Thanks for sharing ☺️🙏🏼 this captures something most people underestimate the gap between the “right window” on paper and the reality once you’re in it.
Weather windows feel precise when you’re planning - charts, forecasts, clean gaps between systems. But out there, it’s all overlap, timing errors, and small misreads compounding into real conditions. You don’t get a perfect window, you get a bet that’s good enough.
What stood out is how quickly that shifts from strategy to endurance. Once you’re in it, there’s no more optimizing - just managing fatigue, staying alert, and letting the decision play out. Day 13 of an eight-day passage says everything about how fragile those assumptions are.
There’s a broader pattern here. We like to believe we can time complex systems - weather, markets, even life moves - with enough data. In reality, you’re always entering something partially wrong. The skill isn’t picking perfectly, it’s being able to handle the version you actually get.
This is brilliantly put, Mats. "You don't get a perfect window, you get a bet that's good enough" (which if you're lucky feels perfect, especially in hindsight!)
Exactly. And the dangerous part is that hindsight upgrades the bet into a “perfect decision.” In the moment it rarely feels clean. It just feels like committing and living with it.
laughing to myself as we have just committed to this next 500+ mile passage, so here we go . . . You're right. It doesn't feel particularly clean but feels reasonable.
Just want to thank you for inspiring the amazing adventures I enjoyed in my youth! Your current stories bring back fond memories and I admire that you are still doing the hard work of sailing and cruising. The rewards unobtainable any other way!
Weather predictions have greatly evolved in terms of precision. It's nice that you can compare what it was to what it became.
We're currently doing my favorite kind of window shopping: weather. In Auckland to go to Fiji. We might go up to Opua this week to shorten this upcoming passage a bit.
Last year, we had something funny happen with Bob MacDavitt. We were seeing a weather window and he was seeing it too. It had been a great dance of go, no don't go for a good 3 weeks. He gave us the go to leave Opua to go to Fiji. We left. About 3 days in, we were wondering what the hell we were doing there, we had been on the 3rd reef since we had left Opua, with a tiny triangle of cloth ahead. We were reaching record speed everyday going down the waves, 14 knots...! Anyhow, we then reread Bob's email, which my husband had read alone, or half read as we came to discover. In the middle of the meteorological advice were the following words: This will be a bold and brave passage. We laughed so hard about how bold and brave we did not feel in the moment with our 4 kids on board. We had left May 2. We would not change anything as we've come to discover how great our boat is when it becomes hard (she is a Columbia 56, 1977). She handles very nicely, even in 40 knots of wind.
Note to self: read the weather guy's email thoroughly.
Anyways, there is a storm system coming now, we shall wait and read Bob's advice fully!
If you happen to stop in north Cove on Kawau Island on your way north, drop your anchor and come introduce yourself - we are home this week. Easy to spot our place, it is right in the middle of the cove between two arms. Wooden boathouse on the inboard end of a long jetty. Little lovely hereshoff sloop tied alongside the jetty pontoon.
Timely reminder as we look for the right weather to dash the 500+ miles between Gambiers and Tuamotus.
I like this “So many factors can affect weather patterns. That means, while it is relatively easy to make accurate two-day predictions, we forecasters are just making educated guesses about what will happen four days out. You sailors have to be aware, windows may open, but windows also close.”
We have found Met Bob to be a joke. If you wish to have a GREAT dedicated marine meteorologist working for you, use Chris Parker's service https://www.mwxc.com/
They ask for boat size and speed and use it as a part of their forecast. Current position is also sent as one receives updates along the route. So no, you do not need a 45'+ boat with 7 knot speeds.
Thank you to those who added comments. I have personally, never used a weather router for planning my own departures. So I can't comment on who might be a best or better person to contact. I have known Bob McDavitt as a friend for many years and know the high regard he is held in for his weather knowledge, his generosity in sharing that knowledge and his ability to understand what sailing on a smaller boat feels like. That aside, I forgot to include one other source of information I use for choosing potentially better weather windows - the Atlas of Pilot charts for the sea-area where I will be sailing. Issued by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), they are only updated about every ten years. And yes, due to global changes, maybe this should be done more often. But over all, they do help show the general pattern of winds, seas and storms we might encounter.
Thanks for sharing ☺️🙏🏼 this captures something most people underestimate the gap between the “right window” on paper and the reality once you’re in it.
Weather windows feel precise when you’re planning - charts, forecasts, clean gaps between systems. But out there, it’s all overlap, timing errors, and small misreads compounding into real conditions. You don’t get a perfect window, you get a bet that’s good enough.
What stood out is how quickly that shifts from strategy to endurance. Once you’re in it, there’s no more optimizing - just managing fatigue, staying alert, and letting the decision play out. Day 13 of an eight-day passage says everything about how fragile those assumptions are.
There’s a broader pattern here. We like to believe we can time complex systems - weather, markets, even life moves - with enough data. In reality, you’re always entering something partially wrong. The skill isn’t picking perfectly, it’s being able to handle the version you actually get.
This is brilliantly put, Mats. "You don't get a perfect window, you get a bet that's good enough" (which if you're lucky feels perfect, especially in hindsight!)
Exactly. And the dangerous part is that hindsight upgrades the bet into a “perfect decision.” In the moment it rarely feels clean. It just feels like committing and living with it.
laughing to myself as we have just committed to this next 500+ mile passage, so here we go . . . You're right. It doesn't feel particularly clean but feels reasonable.
Just want to thank you for inspiring the amazing adventures I enjoyed in my youth! Your current stories bring back fond memories and I admire that you are still doing the hard work of sailing and cruising. The rewards unobtainable any other way!
Weather predictions have greatly evolved in terms of precision. It's nice that you can compare what it was to what it became.
We're currently doing my favorite kind of window shopping: weather. In Auckland to go to Fiji. We might go up to Opua this week to shorten this upcoming passage a bit.
Last year, we had something funny happen with Bob MacDavitt. We were seeing a weather window and he was seeing it too. It had been a great dance of go, no don't go for a good 3 weeks. He gave us the go to leave Opua to go to Fiji. We left. About 3 days in, we were wondering what the hell we were doing there, we had been on the 3rd reef since we had left Opua, with a tiny triangle of cloth ahead. We were reaching record speed everyday going down the waves, 14 knots...! Anyhow, we then reread Bob's email, which my husband had read alone, or half read as we came to discover. In the middle of the meteorological advice were the following words: This will be a bold and brave passage. We laughed so hard about how bold and brave we did not feel in the moment with our 4 kids on board. We had left May 2. We would not change anything as we've come to discover how great our boat is when it becomes hard (she is a Columbia 56, 1977). She handles very nicely, even in 40 knots of wind.
Note to self: read the weather guy's email thoroughly.
Anyways, there is a storm system coming now, we shall wait and read Bob's advice fully!
Keep writing, it's fun to read you.
If you happen to stop in north Cove on Kawau Island on your way north, drop your anchor and come introduce yourself - we are home this week. Easy to spot our place, it is right in the middle of the cove between two arms. Wooden boathouse on the inboard end of a long jetty. Little lovely hereshoff sloop tied alongside the jetty pontoon.
Oh wow! Thank you, I'll let you know :)
Timely reminder as we look for the right weather to dash the 500+ miles between Gambiers and Tuamotus.
I like this “So many factors can affect weather patterns. That means, while it is relatively easy to make accurate two-day predictions, we forecasters are just making educated guesses about what will happen four days out. You sailors have to be aware, windows may open, but windows also close.”
We have found Met Bob to be a joke. If you wish to have a GREAT dedicated marine meteorologist working for you, use Chris Parker's service https://www.mwxc.com/
They ask for boat size and speed and use it as a part of their forecast. Current position is also sent as one receives updates along the route. So no, you do not need a 45'+ boat with 7 knot speeds.